Live forecast

KickCast vs the 2026 World Cup.

KickCast committed a per-match home/draw/away forecast for all 72 group-stage games on 2026-04-20, weeks before the tournament kicked off on 2026-06-11. This page scores that standing forecast against the real results with proper scoring rules, including the matches the model got wrong. All 72 group-stage matches are now final.

The forecast is the committed run (Spain 16.51% favorite), distinct from the dashboard's KickCastNet v3 run (20.52%). Pipeline and code: github.com/karimsemaan/kickcast-worldcup.

Matches scored: 72 / 72group stage
Log-loss: 0.850beats 1.099 uniform
Brier: 0.507lower is better
Top pick: 65%ahead of 47% always-home

Scored so far (72)

Date	Match	Forecast H / D / A	Result	Log-loss
Jun 27	Jordan v ArgentinaJ	5 / 23 / 72	1-3away win	0.325 beats uniform baseline
Jun 27	Algeria v AustriaJ	18 / 35 / 47	3-3draw	1.056 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 27	DR Congo v UzbekistanK	32 / 32 / 36	3-1home win	1.151 above uniform baseline
Jun 27	Colombia v PortugalK	36 / 36 / 28	0-0draw	1.023 beats uniform baseline
Jun 27	Croatia v GhanaL	72 / 19 / 9	2-1home win	0.335 beats uniform baseline
Jun 27	Panama v EnglandL	7 / 30 / 63	0-2away win	0.458 beats uniform baseline
Jun 26	New Zealand v BelgiumG	6 / 25 / 69	1-5away win	0.376 beats uniform baseline
Jun 26	Egypt v IranG	24 / 36 / 40	1-1draw	1.019 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 26	Uruguay v SpainH	10 / 34 / 56	0-1away win	0.585 beats uniform baseline
Jun 26	Cape Verde v Saudi ArabiaH	22 / 33 / 45	0-0draw	1.098 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 26	Senegal v IraqI	65 / 24 / 10	5-0home win	0.424 beats uniform baseline
Jun 26	Norway v FranceI	15 / 39 / 46	1-4away win	0.778 beats uniform baseline
Jun 25	Paraguay v AustraliaD	34 / 37 / 30	0-0draw	1.004 beats uniform baseline
Jun 25	Turkiye v United StatesD	27 / 34 / 40	3-2home win	1.323 above uniform baseline
Jun 25	Tunisia v NetherlandsF	6 / 29 / 65	1-3away win	0.438 beats uniform baseline
Jun 25	Japan v SwedenF	46 / 35 / 19	1-1draw	1.045 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 25	Curacao v Ivory CoastE	10 / 32 / 58	0-2away win	0.541 beats uniform baseline
Jun 25	Ecuador v GermanyE	17 / 36 / 46	2-1home win	1.748 above uniform baseline
Jun 24	South Africa v South KoreaA	9 / 29 / 61	1-0home win	2.355 above uniform baseline
Jun 24	Czechia v MexicoA	21 / 33 / 46	0-3away win	0.771 beats uniform baseline
Jun 24	Morocco v HaitiC	68 / 22 / 9	4-2home win	0.382 beats uniform baseline
Jun 24	Scotland v BrazilC	7 / 29 / 64	0-3away win	0.446 beats uniform baseline
Jun 24	Bosnia and Herzegovina v QatarB	39 / 33 / 28	3-1home win	0.946 beats uniform baseline
Jun 24	Switzerland v CanadaB	43 / 33 / 24	2-1home win	0.841 beats uniform baseline
Jun 23	Colombia v DR CongoK	75 / 17 / 8	1-0home win	0.287 beats uniform baseline
Jun 23	Panama v CroatiaL	10 / 31 / 60	0-1away win	0.516 beats uniform baseline
Jun 23	England v GhanaL	73 / 19 / 8	0-0draw	1.665 above uniform baseline
Jun 23	Portugal v UzbekistanK	60 / 28 / 12	5-0home win	0.513 beats uniform baseline
Jun 22	Jordan v AlgeriaJ	14 / 36 / 50	1-2away win	0.693 beats uniform baseline
Jun 22	Norway v SenegalI	46 / 34 / 20	3-2home win	0.767 beats uniform baseline
Jun 22	France v IraqI	78 / 16 / 6	3-0home win	0.251 beats uniform baseline
Jun 22	Argentina v AustriaJ	63 / 27 / 11	2-0home win	0.467 beats uniform baseline
Jun 21	New Zealand v EgyptG	21 / 34 / 45	1-3away win	0.799 beats uniform baseline
Jun 21	Uruguay v Cape VerdeH	75 / 17 / 8	2-2draw	1.744 above uniform baseline
Jun 21	Belgium v IranG	56 / 30 / 13	0-0draw	1.201 above uniform baseline
Jun 21	Spain v Saudi ArabiaH	86 / 10 / 3	4-0home win	0.148 beats uniform baseline
Jun 21	Tunisia v JapanF	9 / 31 / 60	0-4away win	0.504 beats uniform baseline
Jun 20	Ecuador v CuracaoE	75 / 17 / 8	0-0draw	1.755 above uniform baseline
Jun 20	Germany v Ivory CoastE	63 / 26 / 12	2-1home win	0.467 beats uniform baseline
Jun 20	Netherlands v SwedenF	60 / 29 / 11	5-1home win	0.513 beats uniform baseline
Jun 20	Turkiye v ParaguayD	28 / 30 / 42	0-1away win	0.877 beats uniform baseline
Jun 19	Brazil v HaitiC	82 / 14 / 4	3-0home win	0.199 beats uniform baseline
Jun 19	Scotland v MoroccoC	18 / 36 / 45	0-1away win	0.790 beats uniform baseline
Jun 19	United States v AustraliaD	41 / 36 / 24	2-0home win	0.893 beats uniform baseline
Jun 18	Mexico v South KoreaA	39 / 35 / 26	1-0home win	0.932 beats uniform baseline
Jun 18	Canada v QatarB	76 / 17 / 7	6-0home win	0.274 beats uniform baseline
Jun 18	Switzerland v Bosnia and HerzegovinaB	65 / 25 / 10	4-1home win	0.428 beats uniform baseline
Jun 18	Czechia v South AfricaA	50 / 34 / 17	1-1draw	1.093 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 17	Uzbekistan v ColombiaK	7 / 27 / 66	1-3away win	0.423 beats uniform baseline
Jun 17	Ghana v PanamaL	30 / 34 / 36	1-0home win	1.200 above uniform baseline
Jun 17	England v CroatiaL	46 / 36 / 17	4-2home win	0.770 beats uniform baseline
Jun 17	Portugal v DR CongoK	67 / 23 / 10	1-1draw	1.459 above uniform baseline
Jun 17	Austria v JordanJ	56 / 30 / 14	3-1home win	0.571 beats uniform baseline
Jun 16	Argentina v AlgeriaJ	71 / 21 / 7	3-0home win	0.337 beats uniform baseline
Jun 16	Iraq v NorwayI	6 / 24 / 70	1-4away win	0.360 beats uniform baseline
Jun 16	France v SenegalI	54 / 31 / 15	3-1home win	0.613 beats uniform baseline
Jun 16	Iran v New ZealandG	40 / 35 / 25	2-2draw	1.043 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 15	Saudi Arabia v UruguayH	10 / 31 / 59	1-1draw	1.160 above uniform baseline
Jun 15	Belgium v EgyptG	60 / 28 / 12	1-1draw	1.258 above uniform baseline
Jun 15	Spain v Cape VerdeH	89 / 8 / 3	0-0draw	2.517 above uniform baseline
Jun 14	Sweden v TunisiaF	42 / 35 / 23	5-1home win	0.872 beats uniform baseline
Jun 14	Ivory Coast v EcuadorE	22 / 30 / 48	1-0home win	1.529 above uniform baseline
Jun 14	Netherlands v JapanF	37 / 36 / 27	2-2draw	1.025 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 14	Germany v CuracaoE	78 / 16 / 6	7-1home win	0.250 beats uniform baseline
Jun 14	Australia v TurkiyeD	36 / 32 / 32	2-0home win	1.014 beats uniform baseline
Jun 13	Haiti v ScotlandC	11 / 31 / 58	0-1away win	0.543 beats uniform baseline
Jun 13	Brazil v MoroccoC	55 / 32 / 14	1-1draw	1.154 above uniform baseline
Jun 13	Qatar v SwitzerlandB	15 / 30 / 55	1-1draw	1.217 above uniform baseline
Jun 12	United States v ParaguayD	39 / 36 / 25	4-1home win	0.936 beats uniform baseline
Jun 12	Canada v Bosnia and HerzegovinaB	58 / 28 / 15	1-1draw	1.278 above uniform baseline
Jun 11	South Korea v CzechiaA	37 / 37 / 27	2-1home win	1.005 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 11	Mexico v South AfricaA	66 / 25 / 9	2-0home win	0.414 beats uniform baseline

KickCast vs the 2026 World Cup.

The forecast is the committed run (Spain 16.51% favorite), distinct from the dashboard's KickCastNet v3 run (20.52%). Pipeline and code: github.com/karimsemaan/kickcast-worldcup.

Scored so far (72)

Date	Match	Forecast H / D / A	Result	Log-loss
Jun 27	Jordan v ArgentinaJ	5 / 23 / 72	1-3away win	0.325 beats uniform baseline
Jun 27	Algeria v AustriaJ	18 / 35 / 47	3-3draw	1.056 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 27	DR Congo v UzbekistanK	32 / 32 / 36	3-1home win	1.151 above uniform baseline
Jun 27	Colombia v PortugalK	36 / 36 / 28	0-0draw	1.023 beats uniform baseline
Jun 27	Croatia v GhanaL	72 / 19 / 9	2-1home win	0.335 beats uniform baseline
Jun 27	Panama v EnglandL	7 / 30 / 63	0-2away win	0.458 beats uniform baseline
Jun 26	New Zealand v BelgiumG	6 / 25 / 69	1-5away win	0.376 beats uniform baseline
Jun 26	Egypt v IranG	24 / 36 / 40	1-1draw	1.019 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 26	Uruguay v SpainH	10 / 34 / 56	0-1away win	0.585 beats uniform baseline
Jun 26	Cape Verde v Saudi ArabiaH	22 / 33 / 45	0-0draw	1.098 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 26	Senegal v IraqI	65 / 24 / 10	5-0home win	0.424 beats uniform baseline
Jun 26	Norway v FranceI	15 / 39 / 46	1-4away win	0.778 beats uniform baseline
Jun 25	Paraguay v AustraliaD	34 / 37 / 30	0-0draw	1.004 beats uniform baseline
Jun 25	Turkiye v United StatesD	27 / 34 / 40	3-2home win	1.323 above uniform baseline
Jun 25	Tunisia v NetherlandsF	6 / 29 / 65	1-3away win	0.438 beats uniform baseline
Jun 25	Japan v SwedenF	46 / 35 / 19	1-1draw	1.045 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 25	Curacao v Ivory CoastE	10 / 32 / 58	0-2away win	0.541 beats uniform baseline
Jun 25	Ecuador v GermanyE	17 / 36 / 46	2-1home win	1.748 above uniform baseline
Jun 24	South Africa v South KoreaA	9 / 29 / 61	1-0home win	2.355 above uniform baseline
Jun 24	Czechia v MexicoA	21 / 33 / 46	0-3away win	0.771 beats uniform baseline
Jun 24	Morocco v HaitiC	68 / 22 / 9	4-2home win	0.382 beats uniform baseline
Jun 24	Scotland v BrazilC	7 / 29 / 64	0-3away win	0.446 beats uniform baseline
Jun 24	Bosnia and Herzegovina v QatarB	39 / 33 / 28	3-1home win	0.946 beats uniform baseline
Jun 24	Switzerland v CanadaB	43 / 33 / 24	2-1home win	0.841 beats uniform baseline
Jun 23	Colombia v DR CongoK	75 / 17 / 8	1-0home win	0.287 beats uniform baseline
Jun 23	Panama v CroatiaL	10 / 31 / 60	0-1away win	0.516 beats uniform baseline
Jun 23	England v GhanaL	73 / 19 / 8	0-0draw	1.665 above uniform baseline
Jun 23	Portugal v UzbekistanK	60 / 28 / 12	5-0home win	0.513 beats uniform baseline
Jun 22	Jordan v AlgeriaJ	14 / 36 / 50	1-2away win	0.693 beats uniform baseline
Jun 22	Norway v SenegalI	46 / 34 / 20	3-2home win	0.767 beats uniform baseline
Jun 22	France v IraqI	78 / 16 / 6	3-0home win	0.251 beats uniform baseline
Jun 22	Argentina v AustriaJ	63 / 27 / 11	2-0home win	0.467 beats uniform baseline
Jun 21	New Zealand v EgyptG	21 / 34 / 45	1-3away win	0.799 beats uniform baseline
Jun 21	Uruguay v Cape VerdeH	75 / 17 / 8	2-2draw	1.744 above uniform baseline
Jun 21	Belgium v IranG	56 / 30 / 13	0-0draw	1.201 above uniform baseline
Jun 21	Spain v Saudi ArabiaH	86 / 10 / 3	4-0home win	0.148 beats uniform baseline
Jun 21	Tunisia v JapanF	9 / 31 / 60	0-4away win	0.504 beats uniform baseline
Jun 20	Ecuador v CuracaoE	75 / 17 / 8	0-0draw	1.755 above uniform baseline
Jun 20	Germany v Ivory CoastE	63 / 26 / 12	2-1home win	0.467 beats uniform baseline
Jun 20	Netherlands v SwedenF	60 / 29 / 11	5-1home win	0.513 beats uniform baseline
Jun 20	Turkiye v ParaguayD	28 / 30 / 42	0-1away win	0.877 beats uniform baseline
Jun 19	Brazil v HaitiC	82 / 14 / 4	3-0home win	0.199 beats uniform baseline
Jun 19	Scotland v MoroccoC	18 / 36 / 45	0-1away win	0.790 beats uniform baseline
Jun 19	United States v AustraliaD	41 / 36 / 24	2-0home win	0.893 beats uniform baseline
Jun 18	Mexico v South KoreaA	39 / 35 / 26	1-0home win	0.932 beats uniform baseline
Jun 18	Canada v QatarB	76 / 17 / 7	6-0home win	0.274 beats uniform baseline
Jun 18	Switzerland v Bosnia and HerzegovinaB	65 / 25 / 10	4-1home win	0.428 beats uniform baseline
Jun 18	Czechia v South AfricaA	50 / 34 / 17	1-1draw	1.093 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 17	Uzbekistan v ColombiaK	7 / 27 / 66	1-3away win	0.423 beats uniform baseline
Jun 17	Ghana v PanamaL	30 / 34 / 36	1-0home win	1.200 above uniform baseline
Jun 17	England v CroatiaL	46 / 36 / 17	4-2home win	0.770 beats uniform baseline
Jun 17	Portugal v DR CongoK	67 / 23 / 10	1-1draw	1.459 above uniform baseline
Jun 17	Austria v JordanJ	56 / 30 / 14	3-1home win	0.571 beats uniform baseline
Jun 16	Argentina v AlgeriaJ	71 / 21 / 7	3-0home win	0.337 beats uniform baseline
Jun 16	Iraq v NorwayI	6 / 24 / 70	1-4away win	0.360 beats uniform baseline
Jun 16	France v SenegalI	54 / 31 / 15	3-1home win	0.613 beats uniform baseline
Jun 16	Iran v New ZealandG	40 / 35 / 25	2-2draw	1.043 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 15	Saudi Arabia v UruguayH	10 / 31 / 59	1-1draw	1.160 above uniform baseline
Jun 15	Belgium v EgyptG	60 / 28 / 12	1-1draw	1.258 above uniform baseline
Jun 15	Spain v Cape VerdeH	89 / 8 / 3	0-0draw	2.517 above uniform baseline
Jun 14	Sweden v TunisiaF	42 / 35 / 23	5-1home win	0.872 beats uniform baseline
Jun 14	Ivory Coast v EcuadorE	22 / 30 / 48	1-0home win	1.529 above uniform baseline
Jun 14	Netherlands v JapanF	37 / 36 / 27	2-2draw	1.025 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 14	Germany v CuracaoE	78 / 16 / 6	7-1home win	0.250 beats uniform baseline
Jun 14	Australia v TurkiyeD	36 / 32 / 32	2-0home win	1.014 beats uniform baseline
Jun 13	Haiti v ScotlandC	11 / 31 / 58	0-1away win	0.543 beats uniform baseline
Jun 13	Brazil v MoroccoC	55 / 32 / 14	1-1draw	1.154 above uniform baseline
Jun 13	Qatar v SwitzerlandB	15 / 30 / 55	1-1draw	1.217 above uniform baseline
Jun 12	United States v ParaguayD	39 / 36 / 25	4-1home win	0.936 beats uniform baseline
Jun 12	Canada v Bosnia and HerzegovinaB	58 / 28 / 15	1-1draw	1.278 above uniform baseline
Jun 11	South Korea v CzechiaA	37 / 37 / 27	2-1home win	1.005 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 11	Mexico v South AfricaA	66 / 25 / 9	2-0home win	0.414 beats uniform baseline

Scoreboard

Scored so far (72)

Scoreboard

Scored so far (72)